Thursday, December 11, 2025
Futures: LME copper opened at $11,632/mt overnight. After hitting a high of $11,665/mt early in the session, it fell straight to a low of $11,533/mt, eventually consolidating sideways to close at $11,559.5/mt, a gain of 0.78%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest reached 345,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2601 opened at 92,250 yuan/mt overnight. It hit a high of 92,490 yuan/mt early in the session, then the price center fell all the way to a low of 91,450 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 91,770 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.32%. Trading volume reached 56,000 lots, and open interest reached 194,000 lots. 201,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On December 10, shareholders of Anglo American and Teck Resources approved the all-share merger of the two companies on December 9, 2025, to form Anglo Teck. The merged company is expected to become the world's fifth-largest copper producer, with an annual copper production of approximately 1.2 million mt, and is projected to achieve annual cost synergies of approximately $800 million within the next four years.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On December 10, SMM's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2512 contract were quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 91,510 to 91,890 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper rose from 91,200 yuan/mt to above 91,700 yuan/mt, with the inter-month price spread showing C80-C40 yuan/mt, and the import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract narrowed to around 1,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, as spot trading against the SHFE copper 2512 contract is inactive, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain under pressure, and small discounts are anticipated to persist tomorrow.
(2) Guangdong: On December 10, Guangdong's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt to 100 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 65 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 40 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price for Guangdong's #1 copper cathode was 91,670 yuan/mt, down 810 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price for SX-EW copper was 91,565 yuan/mt, down 810 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, as copper prices continued to pull back, downstream procurement volume increased slightly, but buyers remained cautious of high prices and were unwilling to purchase more.
(3) Imported copper: On December 10, warrant prices were $35/mt to $47/mt, QP December, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $42/mt to $54/mt, QP January, with the average price up $2/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $2/mt to $16/mt, QP January, with the average price up $2/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referenced cargoes arriving in mid-December and late December.
(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on December 10, the futures closing price was 91,750 yuan/mt, down 390 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 30 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials fell 500 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 81,600-81,800 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,400 yuan/mt, up 79 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,940 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as copper prices stopped falling, secondary copper rod enterprises bought the dip for raw materials. However, due to suppliers selling large amounts of inventory when prices were high, secondary copper rod enterprises reported limited procurement volume of recycled copper raw materials during the day.
(5) Inventories: On December 9, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 700 mt to 164,975 mt; on December 10, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 600 mt to 28,931 mt.
Prices: On the macro front, the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but after the rate cut, Trump stated that the magnitude of the cut was too small, causing the US dollar index to fall, which benefited copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply side, sales sentiment improved during the day, easing the tight supply situation in the market; demand side, downstream procurement sentiment remained weak. Overall, copper prices were expected to hover at highs today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
